Trump Holds a 37-point Primary Lead Because of His ‘Unshakable’ MAGA Base

The New York Times/Siena College poll, released Monday and its first of the 2024 campaign season, shows Trump leading DeSantis by 37 percentage points. 

Trump received 54% support in the hypothetical 2024 primary, while DeSantis came in with 17%, according to the poll.

“Even if it might be a mistake to call Mr. Trump ‘inevitable,’ the Times/Siena data suggests that he commands a seemingly unshakable base of loyal supporters, representing more than one-third of the Republican electorate,” reads an analysis by the newspaper of the polling data.

Still, the analysis points out that such factors as Trump’s legal problem, upcoming debates, and early-state primary balloting could change Trump’s seeming inevitability. 

“Alone, [base] support is not enough for Mr. Trump to win the primary. But it is large enough to make him extremely hard to defeat – perhaps every bit as hard as the historical record suggests,” the analysis also reads.

The poll also shows most likely Republican primary voters, 58%, also say that Trump is able to beat President Biden, compared to DeSantis, who got only 28% support on that question.

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